Somalia: The Next (Pakistan: The Next Afghanistan?)
Somalia could be the new Afghanistan, or Pakistan could be the new Somalia. Welcome to the ‘war on terror’.
By Jeff Gore on Monday, December 15th, 2008 - 369 words.
I read an interesting article in the New York Times today:
Somalia’s president fired the prime minister Sunday, saying he failed to bring security to a nation struggling with a violent insurgency and political turmoil.
President Abdullahi Yusuf announced the decision in Baidoa, one of the few towns the government still controls. Islamic militants have taken over most of the country.
For those of you confused by the unwelcome intrusion of mathematics into the title, here’s my gist. A cornerstone of President Obama’s promised foreign policy will be to shift troops away from the “wrong war” in Iraq to the “right war” in Afghanistan. But the “fight against terrorism” (to use their childishly simplistic phrase) is not like a loading bar on a computer screen driving inexorably in one direction, constantly making progress, never losing ground no matter how agonizingly slow it inches forward.
The global battle between the U.S. government and Islamic militants is more akin to predator-prey co-evolution, two sine waves chasing each other across an endless axis, one slightly ahead of or behind the other. In this case, the Islamic militants have always been at least one beat ahead. As an example of this, by the time that Obama’s military more fully entrenches itself in Afghanistan, the militants will have more fully entrenched themselves in Pakistan.
Perhaps by the middle of Obama’s second term, (wild speculation I’m aware, especially considering the Mayan apocalypse and all), we could see an “I’ve had it up to here with you!” from a more temperamental, worn-looking Obama and thus a full-scale invasion of Pakistan — assuming, of course, that pre-invasion covert ops had safely secured or neutralized the nuclear stockpile.
Of course, by then, Somalia (and perhaps other countries on the Horn of Africa) will be totally under the control of Islamic militants, used actively as a base and training ground for progressively more devastating terrorist attacks. Having laid waste to three countries – and having created a bona fide surplus of radicalized Muslims – the U.S., led by the 45th president-elect, would embark on the third edition of “let’s shift our troops to the right war” as Grandpa Bin Laden cackles in his cave with glee.
Moral of the story being: vote Ron Paul in 2012!
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